• Trump’s election odds increased by 8.6% on Polymarket.
• Over $160 million has been wagered by crypto millionaires on his win.
• Bettors believe Trump's chances are better than current polls show.

Cryptocurrency millionaires are wagering millions that the Trump polls are inaccurate. Donald Trump has a 47 percent chance of winning the US election in November. It peaked at 72 percent on July 16, three days after the Republican presidential candidate came dangerously close to death at a rally in Pennsylvania. It was approximately 40% at the beginning of the year.

The bitcoin bettors claim Trump's prospects are being undervalued and that the race is a toss-up, despite some polls giving Harris leads of five points or more. On Polymarket, wagers on a Trump win have exceeded $160 million, with one high roller placing a $2.5 million wager. The website has frequently predicted that the former president will do better than indicated by opinion polls.

Polymarket is being closely watched due to the billions being wagered, the tight race, and decreasing trust in opinion polls. The site operates more like financial markets than gambling sites, with users buying and selling contracts that pay out a dollar if Trump wins. As the chance of the contract paying out rises, its price goes up, providing an indicator of the Republican's chances.

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Polymarket's odds of a Trump or Harris victory have become regularly cited in news reports and punditry. However, the site also suggests other world events, such as Israel's invasion of Lebanon by November, Robert Jenrick as the next Conservative leader, and Taylor Swift's engagement by the end of the year. If Trump wins in November and prediction markets once again outperform polls, it's time to start paying more attention to crypto super-forecasters.

However, the practice has raised fears that prediction markets may interfere with the democratic process. Prediction markets could harm public perception of election integrity and undermine confidence in elections, the US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission said this year in response to a proposal to legalize the contracts.

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About the Author: 

Ritik Sharma